Learning from South Africa's recent summer rainfall droughts: How might we think differently about response?
Learning from South Africa's recent summer rainfall droughts: How might we think differently about response?
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从南非最近的夏季降雨干旱中吸取教训：我们如何以不同的方式思考应对措施？
作者：
Archer E
南非以及更广泛的南部非洲发展共同体区域2015/2016和2016/2017夏季雨季被普遍认为是自1980年代初和1990年代初以来有记录以来最严重的干旱。应对干旱的更被动方法的缺点在文献中得到了很好的阐述，但这方面的进展仍然缓慢。南非目前正处于地方政府一级的重大变革之中，而且可能正在进行全国范围的变革。因此，这提供了一个潜在的机会，以不同的方式思考干旱应对措施，采取更长期和更积极的观点，并从更长期的气候变化预测中获得信息。这篇评论提供了可在哪里采取这种方法的精选实例，最后希望科学家在更好地提供信息方面发挥更大的作用。
The 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 summer rainfall seasons in South Africa, as well as in the Southern African Development Community region more widely, are generally agreed to be the most severe droughts on record since those of the early 1980s and 1990s. Shortcomings of a more reactive approach to dealing with drought have been well covered in the literature, yet evolution in this regard remains slow. South Africa is currently in the midst of significant change at the local governmental level, as well as likely ongoing change at the national scale. As a result, this provides a potential opportunity to think differently about drought response, taking a longer term and more proactive view, also informed by longer term climate change projections. This commentary provides selected examples of where such an approach might be taken, concluding with hope for an expanded role for scientists in better informing response.
南部非洲气候变化中季节性预报的潜在价值
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
H. Winsemius;E. Dutra;F. Engelbrecht;E. A. V. Garderen;F. Wetterhall;F. Pappenberger;M. Werner
通讯作者：
M. Werner