Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment
Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment
复制标题
初始条件与外部强迫对十年间气候预测的影响：敏感性实验
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-14-00671.1
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
B. Wouters
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Corti;T. Palmer;M. Balmaseda;A. Weisheimer;S. Drijfhout;N. Dunstone;W. Hazeleger;J. Kröger;H. Pohlmann;Doug M. Smith;Von Storch;B. Wouters
初始条件的影响相对于外部强迫的十年期集成从合奏的国家的最先进的预测模式已被评估使用专门设计的敏感性实验（SWAP实验）。它们包括两组10年长的集合后报，两个初始日期在1965年和1995年使用的外部强迫从“正确”的几十年或交换的强迫之间的两个十年。通过比较两套积分，外部强迫与初始条件的影响，可预测性在多年的时间尺度上的后报提前时间的函数估计。研究发现，在大于1年的时间尺度上，全球海表温度（SST）的可预报性主要来自外部强迫。然而，正确的初始化对特定区域（如北大西洋，西北太平洋和南大洋）的SST可预报性有更长的影响。如果考虑到地表以下的海洋变量，初始化的影响甚至更长，并延伸到更广泛的区域。对于西部和东部的热带大西洋，初始化的700米热含量（HTC 700）的影响延伸到多达9年的一些模型考虑。在所有模式中，初始条件对大西洋纬向翻转环流（AMOC）可预报性的影响在前5年占主导地位。
The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two initial dates in 1965 and 1995 using either the external forcings from the “correct” decades or swapping the forcings between the two decades. By comparing the two sets of integrations, the impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on the predictability over multiannual time scales was estimated as the function of lead time of the hindcast. It was found that over time scales longer than about 1 yr, the predictability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a global scale arises mainly from the external forcing. However, the correct initialization has a longer impact on SST predictability over specific regions such as the North Atlantic, the northwestern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The impact of initialization is even longer and extends to wider regions when below-surface ocean variables are considered. For the western and eastern tropical Atlantic, the impact of initialization for the 700-m heat content (HTC700) extends to as much as 9 years for some of the models considered. In all models the impact of initial conditions on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is dominant for the first 5 years.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Ba, Jin;Keenlyside, Noel S.;Volodin, Evgeny
通讯作者：
Volodin, Evgeny
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
Lozier, M. Susan;Roussenov, Vassil;Williams, Richard G.
通讯作者：
Williams, Richard G.