The Nomogram for Early Death in Patients with Bone and Soft Tissue Tumors
The Nomogram for Early Death in Patients with Bone and Soft Tissue Tumors
复制标题
骨和软组织肿瘤患者早期死亡的列线图
DOI：
10.7150/jca.46152
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Zhang, Chao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu, Yao;Xu, Guijun;Zhang, Chao
目的：评价骨与软组织肿瘤的早期死亡率及其相关因素，并建立预测性诺模图。方法：纳入2010至2015年间在监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中确诊的患者。计算早期死亡(生存时间≤3个月)率，并用Logistic回归模型评估相关危险因素。显著因素被用来构建预测性诺模图。结果：癌症确诊后3个月内死亡2,003例(8.5%)，其中因癌症原因死亡1146例(4.9%)。年龄较大(19-50岁和50岁)、分级(III和IV级)、区域或远期与总的、癌症特异性的和非癌症特异性的早期死亡的几率较高相关。T2期、脑、肺转移是肿瘤特异性早期死亡的危险因素。手术干预显著降低了总的、癌症特异性和非癌症特异性早期死亡的几率。女性和黑人种族与非癌症特异性早期死亡的几率较低相关。总早期死亡、肿瘤特异性早期死亡和非肿瘤特异性早期死亡的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为88.0%、89.0%和83.2%。结论：8.5%的骨和软组织肿瘤患者早期死亡。有几个危险因素与早期死亡的几率较高有关，而手术可以降低早期死亡的可能性。基于所有相关因素的诺模图可以用来估计骨和软组织肿瘤的早期死亡。
Objectives: The present study aimed to evaluate the early mortality rate and associated factors for early death in bone and soft tissue tumors, and to construct predictive nomogram. Methods: Patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) dataset were enrolled. The early death (survival time ≤ 3 months) rate was calculated and associated risk factors were evaluated by the logistic regression models. The significant factors were used to construct predictive nomograms. Results: A total of 2,003 (8.5%) patients died within 3 months after cancer diagnosis, among whom 1,146 (4.9%) patients died from cancer-specific cause. Older age (19-50 and >50 years), grade (III and IV), reginal or distant stage were associated with higher odds of total, cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific early death. T2 stage, metastasis to brain and lung were risk factors for total and cancer-specific early death. Surgical interventions significantly decreased the odds of total, cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific early death. Female and black race were associated with lower odds of non-cancer-specific early death. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomograms for total early death, cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific early death prediction was 88.0%, 89.0% and 83.2%, respectively. Conclusions: A total of 8.5% patients with bone and soft tissue tumors suffered early death. Several risk factors were associated with higher odds of early death while surgery can decrease the possibility of early death. Nomograms based on all related factors can be used to estimate the early death in bone and soft tissue tumors.