Source region attribution of PM2.5 mass concentrations over Japan
Source region attribution of PM2.5 mass concentrations over Japan
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DOI：
10.2343/geochemj.2.0344
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Ohara, Toshimasa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ikeda, Kohei;Yamaji, Kazuyo;Ohara, Toshimasa
我们使用区域化学品传输模型和排放敏感性方法，估算了 2010 年东亚源区对日本 PM2.5 质量浓度的贡献。该模型总体上很好地再现了 PM2.5 浓度的水平分布和时间变化。据估计，中国对日本西部（从九州到近畿）年平均 PM2.5 浓度的相对贡献为 50-60%，关东地区为 40%。华北中部（东经105度-124度，北纬34度-42度）的贡献尤其显着，占日本全国PM2.5年平均浓度的20-40%。西日本地区的春季、秋季和冬季以及关东地区的春季，来自外国的贡献有所增加。国内贡献估计为20-50%。除关东地区外，各受体区外来人为源的贡献总和大于国内污染。结果是通过敏感性模拟得出的，每个源区域的人为排放量减少了 20%。根据不同扰动（增加 20% 和减少 50%）的额外敏感性模拟，年平均 PM2.5 浓度的源-受体关系的不确定性估计在几个百分点之内。模型结果表明，东亚区域尺度的交通对日本PM2.5环境标准的实现具有显着影响。
We estimated the contributions of source regions in East Asia to PM2.5 mass concentrations over Japan for the year 2010 using a regional chemical transport model with an emission sensitivity approach. The horizontal distributions and temporal variations of PM2.5 concentrations were generally well reproduced by the model. The relative contribution of China to the annual mean PM2.5 concentration was estimated to be 50-60% in western Japan (from Kyushu to Kinki), and 40% in the Kanto area. Central north China (105 degrees E-124 degrees E, 34 degrees N-42 degrees N) made a particularly significant contribution, accounting for 20-40% of the annual mean PM2.5 concentration for the whole of Japan. The contribution from foreign sources increased in spring, autumn, and winter in western Japan, and in spring in the Kanto area. The domestic contribution was estimated to be 20-50%. The sum of contributions from foreign anthropogenic sources was greater than the domestic pollution in each receptor region except the Kanto region. The results were obtained from sensitivity simulations with reduced anthropogenic emissions from each source region by 20%. The uncertainties in the source-receptor relationship for annual mean PM2.5 concentrations were estimated to be within a few percent, from additional sensitivity simulations with different perturbations (a 20% increase and a 50% reduction). The model results suggest that regional-scale transport in East Asia has a significant impact on the attainment of the PM2.5 environmental standard in Japan.