The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment
The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment
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加拿大央行商业前景调查：评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Cristiano Papile
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mónica Martín;Cristiano Papile
自1997年秋季以来，加拿大银行的区域办事处（设在哈利法克斯、蒙特利尔、多伦多、卡尔加里和温哥华）每季度与加拿大各地的企业进行协商。这些协商现在被称为商业前景调查。BOS提供了有关企业正在经历和计划的及时信息来源。商业咨询的时间安排是为了在银行宣布货币政策决定的固定日期之前纳入决策过程。协商是围绕一份调查表进行的。每个季度，100家反映加拿大经济在地区，商业活动类型和公司规模方面多样化组成的公司都会接受采访。由于BOS是一个相对较新的工具，调查时间序列较短。本文件中提出的评估以图表和相关性为基础，旨在作为初步指南。调查结果表明，该调查是加拿大经济的晴雨表，并提供了未来活动的领先信号。访谈的回答也向世行提供了有关生产能力限制、劳动力短缺和通胀预期的信息。
Since the autumn of 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices (located in Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver) have conducted consultations with businesses across Canada on a quarterly basis. These consultations are now referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The BOS provides a timely source of information on what businesses are experiencing and planning. Business consultations are timed to feed into the decision-making process that precedes the Bank's fixed dates for announcing monetary policy decisions. The consultations are structured around a questionnaire. Every quarter, 100 firms that reflect the diverse composition of the Canadian economy in terms of region, type of business activity, and firm size are interviewed. Because the BOS is a relatively new tool, the survey time series is short. The assessment presented in this paper, which is based on charts and correlations, is intended as an initial guide. The findings suggest that the survey serves as a barometer of the Canadian economy and provides leading signals of future activity. The interview responses also inform the Bank about production-capacity constraints, labour shortages, and inflation expectations.