Scenario forecast model of long term trends in rural labor transfer based on evolutionary games
Scenario forecast model of long term trends in rural labor transfer based on evolutionary games
复制标题
基于演化博弈的农村劳动力转移长期趋势情景预测模型
DOI：
10.1007/s00191-015-0393-9
复制
发表时间：
2015-07-01
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Zhou, Chuang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu, Dehai;Li, Hongyi;Zhou, Chuang
中国农村劳动力转移具有熟人介绍的特点，且以年轻人为主，符合演化博弈中的有限理性假说。本文首先应用演化博弈论结合情景分析对中国农村劳动力转移的长期趋势进行定量预测。首先探讨了农村劳动力转移一般复制动力模型的演化机制。特别是，我们利用演化博弈建立了一个因果预测模型来预测农村劳动力转移的长期趋势，其中预测模型的残差在消除经济收益差异后被视为影响转移决策的社会因素，即城镇部门的就业障碍。基于农村各部门就业收入和人口分布的历史时间序列数据，构建了城镇不同部门就业障碍时间序列预测模型。考虑到未来经济因素的不确定性，即影响农村劳动力转移的城乡收入差距，我们在演化博弈预测模型中引入情景分析。我们考虑城乡收入差距的三种情景：（1）平均情景——当前城乡收入差距没有变化；（2）悲观情景——收入差距陷入中等收入陷阱；（3）乐观情景——收入差距接近发达国家水平，来预测中国农村劳动力转移的长期趋势。
Chinese rural labor transfer is characterized by acquaintance introduction and is mainly composed of young people, consistent with the bounded rationality hypothesis in evolutionary games. The paper first applies evolutionary game theory combined with scenario analysis for the quantitative prediction of long term trends in rural labor transfer in China. First, it discusses the evolutionary mechanism of the general replicator dynamic model in rural labor transfer. In particular, we use evolutionary games to build a causality prediction model forecasting the long term trends in rural labor transfer, where the residuals of the forecasting model, after removing the economic payoff differences, are considered as the social factors, i.e., the employment barriers in the urban sectors, affecting the transfer decision-making. Based on the historical time series data of income and population distribution of rural employment in various sectors, the paper builds a time series forecasting model of employment barriers of different urban sectors. Given the future uncertainties in economic factors, i.e., the urban–rural income gaps which affect the rural labor transfer, we introduce scenario analysis into the evolutionary game forecasting model. We consider three scenarios of the urban–rural income differences: (1) the average situation – no change in the current urban–rural income differences, (2) the pessimistic situation – the income differences fall into the middle-income trap, and (3) the optimistic situation – the income gap approaches the level in developed countries, to forecast the long term trends in the rural labor transfer in China.