Implications of building code enforcement and urban expansion on future earthquake loss in East Africa: case study-Blantyre, Malawi
Implications of building code enforcement and urban expansion on future earthquake loss in East Africa: case study-Blantyre, Malawi
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建筑规范执行和城市扩张对东非未来地震损失的影响：案例研究 - 马拉维布兰太尔
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-023-05895-1
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Giordano N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Giordano N
非洲许多地区快速且不受控制的城市化是地震风险的重要驱动因素。新建筑的建造通常不符合抗震规范，这导致建筑群的脆弱性急剧增加。为了定量评估不受管制的城市化的潜在后果，本研究调查了马拉维布兰太尔市建筑规范执行和城市扩张对未来地震损失的影响。该分析在概率损失评估框架内进行，估算了不同城市扩张率和规范执行情景下 30 年地震总损失的净现值。结果表明，高城市化率和缺乏建筑法规可能导致未来三十年平均地震损失增加三倍。相反，有效的法规执行可以将地震损失的增幅限制在 13%，这凸显了有效的灾害风险减少计划所带来的经济收益。
Rapid and uncontrolled urbanisation in many parts of Africa is a significant driver of earthquake risk. New constructions are usually built with no compliance with seismic codes, which results in a critical increase in the vulnerability of the building stock. To quantitatively assess the potential consequences of unregulated urbanisation, this study investigates the effect of building code enforcement and urban expansion on the future earthquake loss in the city of Blantyre, Malawi. The analysis, performed within a probabilistic loss assessment framework, estimates the net present value of 30-year aggregated seismic loss for different urban expansion rates and code enforcement scenarios. The results show that high urbanisation rates and lack of building regulations could lead to a threefold increase in average seismic losses in the next thirty years. On the contrary, effective code enforcement could cap the seismic loss increase at 13%, highlighting the financial gain from effective disaster risk reduction programmes.