An Analysis of th e Influence of Fundamental Values' E stimation Accuracy on Financial Mark ets
An Analysis of th e Influence of Fundamental Values' E stimation Accuracy on Financial Mark ets
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基本价值估计准确性对金融市场的影响分析
DOI：
10.1155/2010/543065
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Hiroshi Takahashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
折登由希子;山本久志;辻村泰寛;神林靖;Hiroyuki GOTO;Hiroshi Takahashi
本研究分析了基本价值预测准确性的差异对金融市场的影响。通过在市场上的大量实验，我们发现：（1）基本面分析师预测准确性的提高会导致基本面分析师数量的增加;（2）根据基本面分析师预测准确性的高低，可能会出现基本面分析师和被动管理者并存，或者基本面分析师退出市场的情况;（3）当市场上存在多种投资者时，预测准确性的提高可能会增加基本面投资者的数量，而不是采用被动投资策略的投资者的数量。这些结果有助于阐明金融市场价格波动的机制，也表明了资产管理业务中被动投资者比例较低的因素之一。
This research analyzed the influence of the differences in the forecast accuracy of fundamental values on the financial market. As a result of intensive experiments in the market, we made the following interesting findings: (1) improvements in forecast accuracy of fundamentalists can contribute to an increase in the number of fundamentalists; (2) certain situations might occur, according to the level of forecast accuracy of fundamentalists, in which fundamentalists and passive management coexist, or in which fundamentalists die out of the market, and furthermore; (3) where a variety of investors exist in the market, improvements in the forecast accuracy could increase the number of fundamentalists more than the number of investors that employ passive investment strategy. These results contribute to clarifying the mechanism of price fluctuations in financial markets and also indicate one of the factors for the low ratio of passive investors in asset management business.