Distributionally Robust Reliability Assessment for Transmission System Hardening Plan Under $N-k$ Security Criterion
Distributionally Robust Reliability Assessment for Transmission System Hardening Plan Under $N-k$ Security Criterion
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DOI：
10.1109/tr.2019.2893138
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发表时间：
2019-04
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
A. Bagheri;Chaoyue Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Bagheri;Chaoyue Zhao
输电网络复杂性的增加导致电力系统更容易遭受级联故障。因此，对这种复杂网络的强化和可靠性评估已成为必须。此外，常用的$N-1$安全准则并不能保证系统针对可能的级联故障的可靠性。在本文中，给定一个强化计划，我们开发了两个模型来评估 $N-k$ 安全准则下输电系统的可靠性。在第一个模型中，我们量化系统中不甩负荷的概率，以评估限载的可能性。然后，为了更好地了解第二个模型中的甩负荷量，我们使用条件风险值作为风险度量来评估系统的可靠性。为了进行可靠性评估，需要意外概率的信息。然而，这种概率信息通常是未知的并且无法精确估计。因此，在本文中，我们假设意外事件的概率未知且不明确。然后，我们为意外事件的未知概率分布构造一个模糊集。我们的方法很稳健，因为它们分析了传输系统相对于模糊度集中最坏情况分布的可靠性。我们将这两个模型都制定为双层程序，并使用 Bender 分解技术来求解它们。最后，我们在 6 总线和 IEEE 118 总线测试系统上进行了数值实验，以证明所提出方法的有效性。
Increasing the complexity of power transmission networks has led power systems to be more vulnerable to cascading failures. Thus, hardening and reliability assessment of such complex networks have become a must. In addition, the commonly used $N-1$ security criterion does not guarantee the reliability of the system against possible cascading failures. In this paper, given a hardening plan, we develop two models to evaluate the reliability of the power transmission system under $N-k$ security criterion. In the first model, we quantify the probability of no load-shedding in the system to assess the possibility of load curtailment. Then, to have a better insight of the amount of load-shed in the second model, we use the conditional value-at-risk as a risk measure to evaluate the reliability of the system. To perform reliability assessment, the information of contingency probabilities is required. However, such probability information is usually unknown and cannot be estimated precisely. Therefore, in this paper, we assume the probability of contingencies as unknown and ambiguous. Then, we construct an ambiguity set for the unknown probability distribution of contingencies. Our approaches are robust because they analyze the reliability of the transmission system with respect to the worst-case distribution in the ambiguity set. We formulate both models as bilevel programs and solve them using the Bender's decomposition technique. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments on 6-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.