The "Big Win" and Resistance to Extinction When Gambling
The "Big Win" and Resistance to Extinction When Gambling
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赌博时的“大赢”和对灭绝的抵抗
DOI：
10.3200/jrlp.138.6.495-504
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Brent M. King
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Weatherly;John M Sauter;Brent M. King
一个人可能成为病态赌徒的一个假设是，该人最初经历了一次大赢，这产生了对获胜的错误期望，这可能导致尽管遭受巨大损失却持续赌博。尽管这一假设已经存在了几十年，但只有一项对照实证研究解决了这一问题，并且该研究报告了无效结果。在本实验中，作者测试了“大赢”假设，让 4 组几乎没有赌博经验的参与者玩计算机模拟老虎机，以获得可兑换现金的积分。其中一组在第一场比赛中就取得了巨大的胜利。另一位则在第五局比赛中取得了大胜。第三组在第二场和第五场比赛中取得了两次小胜。没有计划其他获胜结果。第四组从未取得过胜利。作者观察到群体的显着效应。在第 1 场比赛中获得大胜利的参与者比在第 5 场比赛中获得大胜利的参与者更早退出模拟游戏。这些结果似乎对“大赢”作为病态赌博的解释提出了质疑。它们更符合赌博行为的行为理论。本研究还应促进使用基于实验室的研究来检验赌博文献中长期存在的假设。
One hypothesis for the reason a person might become a pathological gambler is that the individual initially experiences a big win, which creates a fallacious expectation of winning, which may then lead to persistent gambling despite suffering large losses. Although this hypothesis has been around for several decades, only one controlled empirical study has addressed it, and that study reported null results. In the present experiment, the authors tested the "big win" hypothesis by having 4 groups of participants with little to no experience gambling play a computer-simulated slot machine for credits that were exchangeable for cash. One group experienced a large win on the very 1st play. Another experienced a large win on the 5th play. A 3rd group experienced 2 small wins on the 2nd and 5th plays. No other winning outcomes were programmed. The 4th group never experienced a win. The authors observed a significant effect of group. Participants who experienced a large win on the 1st play quit playing the simulation earlier than participants who experienced a large win on the 5th play. These results appear to question the "big win" as an explanation for pathological gambling. They are more consistent with a behavioral theory of gambling behavior. The present study should also promote the use of laboratory-based research to test long-standing hypotheses in the gambling literature.