Natural disasters and trade: the mitigating impact of port substitution
Natural disasters and trade: the mitigating impact of port substitution
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DOI：
10.1093/jeg/lbz020
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Vermeulen, Wessel N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hamano, Masashige;Vermeulen, Wessel N.
我们研究自然灾害对港口级出口的影响。我们建立了企业和港口之间的相互作用模型，以研究一个港口的出口如何受到邻近港口出口成本变化的影响。我们扩展了标准的贸易模型与异质性企业的多港口结构出口是受港口特定的本地运输成本，港口特定的固定出口成本和国际双边贸易成本。我们发现，由于企业异质性的重力扭曲是有条件的比较优势，在港口的水平和由此产生的替代出口跨港口。我们以2011年东日本大地震为例，对替代效应进行了实证，结果显示，至少有40%的出口被替代到了其他港口。替代效应在技术密集型产品类别中最强，这表明供应链和国内贸易成本之间存在相互作用。
We study the effect of natural disasters on port-level exports. We model the interaction between firms and ports to study how strongly exports from one port are affected by changes in the cost of exporting at neighboring ports. We extend the standard trade model with heterogeneous firms to a multiple port structure where exporting is subject to port specific local transportation costs, port specific fixed export costs and international bilateral trade costs. We show that gravity distortion due to firm heterogeneity is conditional on the comparative advantage at the port level and resulting substitution of exports across ports. We present evidence of the substitution effect using the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, indicating that at least 40% of exports was substituted to other ports following the disaster. The substitution effect is the strongest in technology intensive product categories, which suggests an interaction between supply chains and domestic trade costs.