Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis, Matching, and Average Treatment Effects
Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis, Matching, and Average Treatment Effects
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重新考虑衡量司法独立性：生存分析、匹配和平均治疗效果
DOI：
10.1017/s1468109914000371
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
and Mikitaka Masuyama
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fukumoto;Kentaro;and Mikitaka Masuyama
本文以日本司法为例，对司法独立的判断进行了反思。Ramseyer和Rasmusen（2003）在他们有影响力的著作中指出，在日本长期保守的统治下，曾经属于左翼团体的法官需要更长的时间才能达到“中等声望的地位”。然而，他们的方法没有适当处理法官因去世、提前退休或仍处于职业生涯的早期阶段而无法担任这一职务的可能性。Ramseyer和Rasmusen还错误地认为所有法官最终都会获得这一职位。本文建立了一个司法职业的生存分析模型，并试图解决审查、左截断和人口分裂等问题。我们还提供了一种利用匹配程序来估计对删失至事件时间以及事件发生率的平均治疗效应的方法。我们使用他们和我们的方法重新分析了Ramseyer和Rasmusen的数据的修正版本。最重要的发现之一是，与Ramseyer和Rasmusen的论点相反，左翼法官在晋升时间方面没有受到歧视。
This article reconsiders how to judge judicial independence by using the Japanese judicature, one of the allegedly-most dependent judiciary branches. In their influential work, Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2003) argue that judges who once belonged to a leftist group take longer to reach a ‘moderately prestigious status’ under the long-term conservative rule of Japan. Their method does not, however, deal appropriately with the possibility of judges not reaching this position because the judge dies, retires early, or is still at the early stage of her career. Ramseyer and Rasmusen also mistakenly assume that all judges will eventually obtain this position. This article develops a survival analysis model of judicial careers and attempts to solve the problems of censoring, left truncation, and split population. We also offer a way to utilize a matching procedure to estimate average treatment effects on censored time-to-event as well as event occurrence. We re-analyze a corrected version of Ramseyer and Rasmusen's data using their and our methods. One of the most important findings is that, contrary to what Ramseyer and Rasmusen argue, leftist judges are not discriminated against in terms of the timing of promotion.