Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet Projections to Model Formulations
Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet Projections to Model Formulations
复制标题
格陵兰冰盖预测对模型公式的敏感性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Sarah S. Shannon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Goelzer;P. Huybrechts;J. Fürst;F. M. Nick;Morten L. Andersen;T. Edwards;X. Fettweis;A. Payne;Sarah S. Shannon
格陵兰冰盖对未来海平面变化贡献的物理预测受到大气和海洋气候强迫的不确定性以及冰流模型本身的不确定性的影响。在这里，一个高阶，三维热力学冰流模型，初始化到现在的几何形状。强迫来自一个高分辨率的区域气候模型和一个流线模型应用于四个单独的海洋终止冰川，结果随后扩展到整个冰盖。实验跨越未来200年，并考虑气候情景SRES A1 B。地表质量平衡（SMB）方案取自区域气候模式或正度日（PDD）模式，该模式使用了底层气候模式的温度和降水异常。我们的模型结果表明，出口冰川动力学仅占200年后海平面贡献的6-18%，证实了早期的研究结果，强调SMB变化的主导作用。此外，SMB和冰排放之间的相互作用限制了出口冰川动力学的重要性，增加大气强迫。与使用与IPCC AR 4相同的参数运行的PDD模型相比，区域气候模型的强迫产生的海平面贡献高出14- 31%。
Abstract Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31 % higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Bamber, J. L.;Griggs, J. A.;Steinhage, D.
通讯作者：
Steinhage, D.