Resource Impact: Curse or Blessing? A Literature Survey
Resource Impact: Curse or Blessing? A Literature Survey
复制标题
资源影响：诅咒还是祝福？
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Stevens
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Stevens
常识和经济理论表明，自然资源项目带来的巨额收入应该会促进经济进步和发展。然而，许多证据表明情况恰恰相反，资源丰富的国家遭受着“资源诅咒”。本文对有关自然资源对经济影响的学术文献进行了综述。长期以来，这个话题一直吸引着人们对经济学文献的兴趣，但最近，人们对它的兴趣又复活了。本文首先考虑了大量检验资源丰富、经济表现不佳和贫困之间关系的实证工作。虽然这一证据支持负面影响的观点，但也并非没有批评，一些人断言，少数国家反而得到了“祝福”。本文评估了文献如何解释资源收益与经济损失之间的传导机制。讨论了六个方面：贸易条件的长期下降；收入波动;荷兰疾病;挤出效应；增加国家的作用；以及社会文化和政治影响。最后，从文献中分析了避免负面影响的各种选择：不开发矿床；使经济多样化，减少对石油、天然气和矿产出口的依赖；冲销收入；使用稳定基金和石油基金；重新考虑投资政策。论文最后评估了可能需要哪些政治改革来实施必要的政策，以避免负面影响。
Common sense and economic theory suggest large revenues from natural resource projects should generate economic progress and development. Yet much evidence argues the opposite and that resource-rich countries suffer from ‘resource curse’. This paper provides a survey of the academic literature on the impact of natural resources on an economy. The topic has long attracted interest in the economics literature but more recently, interest has revived. The paper first considers the large body of empirical work examining the relationship between resource abundance, poor economic performance and poverty. While this evidence supports the view of a negative impact, it is not without criticism and some assert a few countries managed instead to receive a ‘blessing’. The paper assesses how the literature explains the transmission mechanisms between resource revenues and economic damage. Six areas are discussed: a long-term decline in terms of trade; revenue volatility; Dutch disease; crowding out effects; increasing the role of the state; and the socio-cultural and political impacts. Finally, various options from the literature to avoid negative impacts are analysed: not developing the mineral deposits; diversifying the economy away from dependence on oil, gas and mineral exports; sterilising the incoming revenue; the use of stabilisation and oil funds; and reconsidering investment policies. The paper finishes by assessing what political reforms might be needed to carry out the necessary policies to avoid negative impacts.