Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard
Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-021-01272-7
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发表时间：
2022-02-03
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gori, Avantika;Lin, Ning;Emanuel, Kerry
热带气旋的变化将增加美国海岸线的风险。在高排放情景下，极端降雨和风暴潮的联合危害增加，其中最大的贡献来自于气旋强度的增加和平移速度的降低，而不是海平面上升。热带气旋（TC）是极端降雨和风暴潮的驱动因素，但目前和未来的TC风暴潮联合危害尚未得到很好的量化。使用物理为基础的方法来模拟TC降雨和风暴潮，我们显示了急剧增加的联合危险，从历史到预测的未来（SSP 5 -8.5）的条件。到2100年，联合极端事件的频率（超过两种灾害的历史100年水平）可能会在美国南部增加7-36倍，在东北部增加30-195倍。这种联合灾害的增加是由海平面上升和TC气候变化引起的; TC气候变化的相对贡献高于96%的海岸的海平面上升，主要是由于降雨量增加。暴雨强度的增加和平移速度的减小是导致暴雨和风暴潮增加的主要TC变化因素，其相关性增加了25%。
Changes to tropical cyclones will increase the risk to US coastlines. Under a high-emissions scenario, the joint hazards of extreme rainfall and storm tides increase, with the largest contribution being from increasing cyclone intensity and decreasing translation speed, rather than sea-level rise.Tropical cyclones (TCs) are drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but the current and future TC rainfall-surge joint hazard has not been well quantified. Using a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides, we show drastic increases in the joint hazard from historical to projected future (SSP5-8.5) conditions. The frequency of joint extreme events (exceeding both hazards' historical 100-year levels) may increase by 7-36-fold in the southern US and 30-195-fold in the Northeast by 2100. This increase in joint hazard is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast, largely due to rainfall increases. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence.