The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?
The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?
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犯罪、惩罚和经济状况之间的关系：当犯罪记录不足时，可靠的推断是否可能？
DOI：
10.1111/1467-985x.00158
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Pyle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Pudney;D. Deadman;D. Pyle
我们研究了当犯罪记录明显不足时，犯罪活动的动态模型的估计。我们给出了理论分析，并使用模拟技术来研究在传统回归估计中产生的偏差。我们发现这些偏见没有什么实际意义。我们开发并应用了一种新的模拟最大似然程序，该程序使用无关的调查数据同时估计测量误差和犯罪过程。这也证实了测量误差偏差很小。我们对英格兰和威尔士数据的估计结果表明，犯罪对经济和执法环境都有很大的反应。
We investigate the estimation of dynamic models of criminal activity, when there is significant under‐recording of crime. We give a theoretical analysis and use simulation techniques to investigate the resulting biases in conventional regression estimates. We find the biases to be of little practical significance. We develop and apply a new simulated maximum likelihood procedure that estimates simultaneously the measurement error and crime processes, using extraneous survey data. This also confirms that measurement error biases are small. Our estimation results for data from England and Wales imply a significant response of crime to both the economic and the enforcement environment.