State-Transition Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-3
State-Transition Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-3
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jval.2012.06.014
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Kuntz, Karen M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Siebert, Uwe;Alagoz, Oguzhan;Kuntz, Karen M.
状态转移建模是一种直观、灵活和透明的基于计算机的决策分析建模方法，包括马尔可夫模型队列模拟和基于个体的（一阶蒙特卡罗）微观模拟。将决策问题概念化为一组（健康）状态和这些状态之间的转换，状态转换建模是临床决策分析，健康技术评估和健康经济评估中最广泛的建模技术之一。状态转换模型已被用于许多不同的人群和疾病，其应用范围从个性化的医疗保健策略到公共卫生计划。最常见的是，状态转换模型用于评估风险因素干预，筛查，诊断程序，治疗策略和疾病管理计划。这篇文章的目的是提供共识为基础的指导方针，在卫生保健的背景下，状态转换模型的应用。我们在以下部分构建了最佳实践建议：模型类型的选择（队列与个人水平模型），模型结构，模型参数，分析，报告和沟通。在每一节中，我们都给出了简要的描述，解决了与状态转换模型的应用特别相关的问题，给出了文献中的具体示例，并为状态转换建模提供了最佳实践建议。这些建议既针对建模者，也针对建模结果的用户，如临床医生、临床指南开发人员、制造商或政策制定者。
State-transition modeling is an intuitive, flexible, and transparent approach of computer-based decision-analytic modeling including both Markov model cohort simulation and individual-based (first-order Monte Carlo) microsimulation. Conceptualizing a decision problem in terms of a set of (health) states and transitions among these states, state-transition modeling is one of the most widespread modeling techniques in clinical decision analysis, health technology assessment, and health-economic evaluation. State-transition models have been used in many different populations and diseases, and their applications range from personalized health care strategies to public health programs. Most frequently, state-transition models are used in the evaluation of risk factor interventions, screening, diagnostic procedures, treatment strategies, and disease management programs. The goal of this article was to provide consensus-based guidelines for the application of state-transition models in the context of health care. We structured the best practice recommendations in the following sections: choice of model type (cohort vs. individual-level model), model structure, model parameters, analysis, reporting, and communication. In each of these sections, we give a brief description, address the issues that are of particular relevance to the application of state-transition models, give specific examples from the literature, and provide best practice recommendations for state-transition modeling. These recommendations are directed both to modelers and to users of modeling results such as clinicians, clinical guideline developers, manufacturers, or policymakers.