Would restricting firearm purchases due to alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanor offenses reduce firearm homicide and suicide? An agent-based simulation.
Would restricting firearm purchases due to alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanor offenses reduce firearm homicide and suicide? An agent-based simulation.
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DOI：
10.1186/s40621-022-00381-x
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发表时间：
2022-06-09
影响因子：
2.2
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中科院分区：
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与刑事司法系统进行的与物质有关的互动是查明有枪支暴力风险的人的一个潜在接触点。我们使用了一个基于代理的模型来模拟枪支暴力的变化后，取消资格的人拥有枪支之前与酒精和毒品有关的轻罪。 我们创建了一个80万代理人的群体，反映了纽约市成年人口的15%样本。在与酒精有关的轻罪定罪后5年内取消购买枪支的资格，使人口水平的枪支杀人率降低1.0% [95%CI 0.4-1.6%]，自杀率降低3.0% [95%CI 1.9-4.0%]。基于与毒品有关的轻罪定罪的取消资格使杀人减少了1.6% [95% CI 1.1-2.2%]，自杀减少了4.6% [95% CI 3.4-5.8%]。对于符合取消资格标准的代理人，扣减额一般为2至8倍。根据毒品和酒精轻罪史拒绝枪支使用可能会减少高危群体中的枪支暴力。禁止使用与药物有关的枪支的标准必须与对在已经脆弱的人群中引入新的剥夺权利来源的关切相平衡。 在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s40621-022-00381-x获得。
Substance-related interactions with the criminal justice system are a potential touchpoint to identify people at risk for firearm violence. We used an agent-based model to simulate the change in firearm violence after disqualifying people from owning a firearm given prior alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanors. We created a population of 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult New York City population. Disqualification from purchasing firearms for 5 years after an alcohol-related misdemeanor conviction reduced population-level rates of firearm homicide by 1.0% [95% CI 0.4–1.6%] and suicide by 3.0% [95% CI 1.9–4.0%]. Disqualification based on a drug-related misdemeanor conviction reduced homicide by 1.6% [95% CI 1.1–2.2%] and suicide by 4.6% [95% CI 3.4–5.8%]. Reductions were generally 2 to 8 times larger for agents meeting the disqualification criteria. Denying firearm access based on a history of drug and alcohol misdemeanors may reduce firearm violence among the high-risk group. Enactment of substance use-related firearms denial criteria needs to be balanced against concerns about introducing new sources of disenfranchisement among already vulnerable populations. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40621-022-00381-x.