Heartbeat of the S outhern O scillation explains ENSO climatic resonances
Heartbeat of the S outhern O scillation explains ENSO climatic resonances
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DOI：
10.1002/2017jc012892
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发表时间：
2017-08
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Bruun;J. Allen;T. Smyth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Bruun;J. Allen;T. Smyth
厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)非线性振荡现象对气候和人类活动有着深远的影响。厄尔尼诺和随后的拉尼娜的长达10年的准周期在热带地区被认为是由风与太平洋赤道波导的非线性物理相互作用所主导的。在目前的ENSO过程理论中，不存在长期循环现象。我们利用热带、温带和太平洋盆地尺度的证据，通过评估低频(10年)和高频(10年)耦合来更新理论。我们使用一种称为主频状态分析(DFSA)的高精度方法来分析观测和模式模拟，以提供稳定的ENSO特征的证据。南方涛动指数(SOI)、北太平洋指数距平和ENSO海温距平的观测资料以及理论模型都证实了ENSO过程存在共振频率为{2.5，3.8，5，12-14，61-75,180}年的长、短期气候周期。这一基本结果表明，在主导的ENSO动力学中，存在着长期和短期信号与锁模的耦合。这些主要的振荡频率动力学被定义为ENSO频率状态，包含一个稳定的吸引子，具有三个共振频率，使我们能够创造出南方涛动的术语心跳，因为它的特征形状。我们基于下个世纪短期和长期ENSO振荡的稳定滞后情景来预测未来的ENSO状态。
The El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Ni~no and subsequent La Ni~na is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12–14, 61–75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.