Measurement Errors in Japanese Consumer Price Index
Measurement Errors in Japanese Consumer Price Index
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日本消费者价格指数的测量误差
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shigenori Shiratsuka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shigenori Shiratsuka
在日本，消费者价格指数（CPI）被广泛用作衡量通货膨胀或生活成本的指标。 CPI 使用固定权重 Laspeyres 公式构建。使用该公式主要是因为它易于计算和理解，从而限制了构建统计数据的总成本。然而，这种简单性使得CPI难以反映经济活动的动态变化，例如消费者因商品相对价格波动而发生的行为变化、新商品的引入和旧商品的消失。结果，CPI 中引入了测量误差。在本文中，我总结了日本CPI固有的测量误差问题，并提供了一些定量评估。根据目前掌握的信息，我对 CPI 总体偏差的点估计约为每年 0.90 个百分点。尽管这是考虑到当前所有可用信息的最佳估计，但该估计确实是基于各种相当大胆的假设。另外，需要注意的是，由于日本缺乏这方面的现有研究，因此估算的准确性不一定很高。
In Japan, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is widely used as a measure of inflation or the cost of living. The CPI is constructed by using a fixed-weight Laspeyres formula. This formula is used mainly because of its ease of calculation and comprehension, thus limiting the total cost of constructing the statistics. However, such simplicity makes it difficult for the CPI to reflect dynamic changes in economic activity such as changes in consumers' behavior between goods in response to relative price fluctuation, the introduction of new goods, and the disappearance of old goods. As a result, measurement errors are introduced into the CPI. In this paper, I summarize the problems pertaining to measurement errors inherent in the Japanese CPI, and provide some quantitative assessment. Based on currently available information, I place the point estimate for overall bias in the CPI at about 0.90 percentage point per year. Although this is the best estimate taking into account all information currently available, it is true that the estimate was based on various, rather bold assumptions. In addition, it should be noted that accuracy of the estimate is not necessarily high due to the lack of existing studies in this field in Japan.