Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abb3221
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Shaman, Jeffrey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Ruiyun;Pei, Sen;Shaman, Jeffrey
估计未记录的新型冠状病毒[严重急性呼吸道综合征-冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）]感染的患病率和传染性对于了解该疾病的总体患病率和大流行潜力至关重要。在这里，我们使用中国境内报告感染的观察结果，结合流动性数据，网络动态集合种群模型和贝叶斯推理，推断与SARS-CoV-2相关的关键流行病学特征，包括未记录感染的比例及其传染性。我们估计，在2020年1月23日旅行限制之前，所有感染中有86%没有记录[95%可信区间（CI）：82-90%]。未记录的感染的传播率是记录的感染的传播率的55%（95%CI：46-62%），然而，由于其数量更多，未记录的感染是79%的记录病例的来源。这些发现解释了SARS-CoV-2的快速地理传播，并表明遏制这种病毒将特别具有挑战性。
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82-90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46-62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.