Theory-based impact evaluation: principles and practice
Theory-based impact evaluation: principles and practice
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DOI：
10.1080/19439340903114628
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发表时间：
2009-09
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
H. White
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. White
伴随着对严格影响评估的呼吁，人们不仅要找出什么是有效的，而且还要找出为什么有效。人们普遍认为，一种以理论为基础的影响评估方法，即绘制出从投入到结果和影响的因果链，并测试基本假设，将揭示为什么的问题。但基于理论的方法的应用仍然薄弱。本文确定了成功应用该方法的以下六个原则：(1)绘制因果链条(方案理论)；(2)理解背景；(3)预测异质性；(4)使用可信的反事实对影响进行严格评估；(5)严格的事实分析；以及(6)使用混合方法。
Calls for rigorous impact evaluation have been accompanied by the quest not just to find out what works but why. It is widely accepted that a theory-based approach to impact evaluation, one that maps out the causal chain from inputs to outcomes and impact and tests the underlying assumptions, will shed light on the why question. But application of a theory-based approach remains weak. This paper identifies the following six principles to successful application of the approach: (1) map out the causal chain (programme theory); (2) understand context; (3) anticipate heterogeneity; (4) rigorous evaluation of impact using a credible counterfactual; (5) rigorous factual analysis; and (6) use mixed methods.