Epidemiological analysis of data for scrapie in Great Britain
Epidemiological analysis of data for scrapie in Great Britain
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268805004966
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发表时间：
2006-04-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Ferguson, NM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hagenaars, TJ;Donnelly, CA;Ferguson, NM
近年来，在英国和欧洲其他地方，控制或根除羊痒病和任何其他可能在绵羊种群中传播的传染性海绵状脑病(TSE)已成为当务之急。更好地了解瘙痒病的流行病学将大大有助于制定和评估控制和根除战略。在这里，我们结合了相对详细的发病机制和人口学数据、更有限的易感性和潜伏期数据以及最近英国瘙痒病发病率的调查数据，确定了关键流行病学参数的范围。同时使用数学模型对这些数据进行分析，这些模型描述了羊群之间和羊群之间的瘙痒病传播。我们的分析表明，羊群中出现瘙痒病通常会引起畜群管理的变化，从而促进疫情的终止，例如采用选择性繁殖，而且很大一部分病例(可能超过80%)没有被发现。我们表明，分析的数据与群体内繁殖数量在1.5-6之间的瘙痒病是一致的，这与以前的流行病学研究一致。
In recent years, the control or eradication of scrapie and any other transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) possibly circulating in the sheep population has become a priority in Britain and elsewhere in Europe. A better understanding of the epidemiology of scrapie would greatly aid the development and evaluation of control and eradication strategies. Here we bound the range of key epidemiological parameters using a combination of relatively detailed pathogenesis and demography data, more limited data on susceptibility and incubation times, and recent survey data on scrapie incidence in Great Britain. These data are simultaneously analysed using mathematical models describing scrapie transmission between sheep and between flocks. Our analysis suggests that occurrence of scrapie in a flock typically provokes changes in flock management that promote termination of the outbreak, such as the adoption of selective breeding, and that a large fraction of cases (possibly over 80%) goes undetected. We show that the data analysed are consistent with the within-flock reproduction number of scrapie lying in the range 1.5-6, consistent with previous epidemiological studies.