Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest From Ages 8 to 23 in a National Sample
Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest From Ages 8 to 23 in a National Sample
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DOI：
10.1542/peds.2010-3710
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Bushway, Shawn D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brame, Robert;Turner, Michael G.;Bushway, Shawn D.
目的：估计 8 至 23 岁之间因非法或不法行为（不包括因轻微交通违规而被捕）的青少年自我报告被捕或被拘留的累计比例。 方法：对 1997 年全国青少年纵向调查（N = 7335）中 1997 年至 2008 年自我报告的逮捕历史数据（不包括因轻微交通违规而被捕）进行审查。 结果：到 18 岁时，样本内累积逮捕发生率在 15.9% 至 26.8% 之间； 23 岁时，这一比例在 25.3% 至 41.4% 之间。这些界限根本没有对失踪案件做出任何假设。如果我们假设失踪案件至少与观察到的案件一样被捕，那么样本中 23 岁的患病率必定在 30.2% 到 41.4% 之间。逮捕累积发生率的最大增长发生在青春期末期和成年早期或成年初期。结论：自上次基于 1965 年数据进行的全国性合理估计以来，美国青少年（特别是在青春期末期和成年早期）累积逮捕发生率大幅增加。至少，因犯罪活动被捕意味着不健康的生活方式、暴力参与和暴力受害的风险增加。将这种见解纳入定期临床评估可以为患者和更大的社区带来显着的好处。儿科 2012；129:21-27
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cumulative proportion of youth who self-report having been arrested or taken into custody for illegal or delinquent offenses (excluding arrests for minor traffic violations) from ages 8 to 23 years.METHODS: Self-reported arrest history data (excluding arrests for minor traffic violations) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (N = 7335) were examined from 1997 to 2008.RESULTS: By age 18, the in-sample cumulative arrest prevalence rate lies between 15.9% and 26.8%; at age 23, it lies between 25.3% and 41.4%. These bounds make no assumptions at all about missing cases. If we assume that the missing cases are at least as likely to have been arrested as the observed cases, the in-sample age-23 prevalence rate must lie between 30.2% and 41.4%. The greatest growth in the cumulative prevalence of arrest occurs during late adolescence and the period of early or emerging adulthood.CONCLUSIONS: Since the last nationally defensible estimate based on data from 1965, the cumulative prevalence of arrest for American youth (particularly in the period of late adolescence and early adulthood) has increased substantially. At a minimum, being arrested for criminal activity signifies increased risk of unhealthy lifestyle, violence involvement, and violent victimization. Incorporating this insight into regular clinical assessment could yield significant benefits for patients and the larger community. Pediatrics 2012;129:21-27