Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet
Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet
复制标题
北大西洋涡流驱动射流转变的集合预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Methven
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Frame;M. Ambaum;S. Gray;J. Methven
三个全球中期预报系统的集合预报与北大西洋涡动驱动急流的三簇模型的观测转换行为的一致性进行了检查。这三个集群包括一个中间的射流集群，代表一个未受干扰的射流和南，北射流集群代表向南和向北转移的射流。集合预报涵盖了2007年10月至2010年2月的三个延长冬季（10月至2月）。从集合预报计算的聚类之间的平均转换概率与从欧洲中期天气预报中心40年再分析（ERA 40）数据集的23个延长冬季气候学计算的结果进行了比较。没有证据表明集合预报转换概率随提前时间的增加而向与23延长冬季气候学不一致的值漂移。集合预报的转换概率在15天提前时间时具有正的Brier技能。结果发现，对于三个延长冬季预报集，北急流集群中初始化的概率预报通常不如其他集群中初始化的预报熟练。这与ERA 40 23-延长冬季气候学中观察到的北向急流团的持续时间尺度较短一致。皇家气象学会
The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium‐range prediction systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three‐cluster model of the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet is examined. The three clusters consist of a mid jet cluster taken to represent an undisturbed jet and south and north jet clusters representing southward and northward shifts of the jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period of three extended winters (October–February) from October 2007–February 2010. The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the ensemble forecasts are compared with those calculated from a 23‐extended‐winter climatology taken from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts 40‐Year Re‐analysis (ERA40) dataset. No evidence of a drift with increasing lead time of the ensemble forecast transition probabilities towards values inconsistent with the 23‐extended‐winter climatology is found. The ensemble forecasts of transition probabilities are found to have positive Brier Skill at 15 day lead times. It is found that for the three‐extended‐winter forecast set, probabilistic forecasts initialized in the north jet cluster are generally less skilful than those initialized in the other clusters. This is consistent with the shorter persistence time‐scale of the north jet cluster observed in the ERA40 23‐extended‐winter climatology. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Keeley, S. P. E.;Sutton, R. T.;Shaffrey, L. C.
通讯作者：
Shaffrey, L. C.