The extreme precipitation event of 11 to 16 February 1996 over South Africa
The extreme precipitation event of 11 to 16 February 1996 over South Africa
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DOI：
10.1007/s007030050023
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发表时间：
1999-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Mason, SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crimp, SJ;Mason, SJ
1996年2月11日至16日的极端降水事件是1995/96年南部非洲雨季期间的四个重大事件之一。当时记录了大范围的洪水和相关破坏，历史记录显示，这是上个世纪最高的洪峰之一。使用中尺度数值模拟和拉格朗日轨迹分析相结合的方法对这一极端事件进行了分析，从而能够对相关的大气结构及其演变进行全面的三维重建。环流模式的调整以及不同水汽来源区域的时间和贡献显然对影响南部非洲这一极端降雨事件的持续时间和强度很重要。在这次事件中促成降水以及该国西南部的水汽主要从印度洋输入到东部和东南部，这表明赤道印度洋可能不像以前认为的那样是主要的水汽来源。
The extreme precipitation event of 11 to 16 February 1996 was one of four significant events during the 1995/96 rainfall season over southern Africa. Extensive flooding and related damage was recorded at this time, with historical records showing one of the highest flood peaks of the past century. This extreme event is analysed using a combination of mesoscale numerical modelling and Lagrangian trajectory analysis, allowing a comprehensive three-dimensional reconstruction of the associated atmospheric structure and its evolution. The adjustments in the circulation patterns as well as the timing and contribution of different moisture source regions are clearly important in influencing the duration and intensity of this extreme rainfall event over southern Africa. The moisture that contributed to precipitation during the event, as well as to the south-western part of the country, was imported mainly from the Indian Ocean to the east and south-east, suggesting that the equatorial Indian Ocean may not be the predominant source of moisture as previously believed.