Space-time clusters and co-occurrence of chikungunya and dengue fever in Colombia from 2015 to 2016
Space-time clusters and co-occurrence of chikungunya and dengue fever in Colombia from 2015 to 2016
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DOI：
10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.04.023
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Delmelle, E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Desjardins, M. R.;Whiteman, A.;Delmelle, E.
全球每年有超过10亿人感染病媒传播疾病，造成100多万人死亡。基孔肯雅热（CHIK）和登革热（DENF）是由于人口过剩、城市化增加、气候变化和其他因素而出现的非传染性疾病。哥伦比亚最近经历了严重的CHIK和DENF疫情。这两种病毒均由伊蚊传播，可通过各种监测和病媒控制措施（例如使用杀虫剂、减少开放式容器等）加以预防。时空统计数据可以告知公共卫生官员在何处分配资源以减轻未来的疫情，从而促进对VBD疫情的监测。我们利用单变量Kulldorff时空扫描统计（STSS）来识别和比较2015年和2016年哥伦比亚爆发期间CHIK和DENF的统计显著时空聚集。我们还利用多变量STSS来检查DENF和CHIK的共发病（同时过量发病），这对于确定可能经历过最大VBDs负担的地区至关重要。报告了属于单变量和多变量集群的哥伦比亚每个城市的CHIK和DENF的相对风险，以促进有针对性的干预措施。最后，我们在三维环境中可视化结果，以检查集群的大小和持续时间。我们的方法是第一个在哥伦比亚同时检查多个VBDs的方法，而3D可视化是一种说明疾病时空集群动态的新方法。
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) infect over one billion people and are responsible for over one million deaths each year, globally. Chikungunya (CHIK) and Dengue Fever (DENF) are emerging VBDs due to overpopulation, increases in urbanization, climate change, and other factors. Colombia has recently experienced severe outbreaks of CHIK AND DENF. Both viruses are transmitted by the Aedes mosquitoes and are preventable with a variety of surveillance and vector control measures (e.g. insecticides, reduction of open containers, etc.). Spatiotemporal statistics can facilitate the surveillance of VBD outbreaks by informing public health officials where to allocate resources to mitigate future outbreaks. We utilize the univariate Kulldorff space-time scan statistic (STSS) to identify and compare statistically significant space-time clusters of CHIK and DENF in Colombia during the outbreaks of 2015 and 2016. We also utilize the multivariate STSS to examine co-occurrences (simultaneous excess incidences) of DENF and CHIK, which is critical to identify regions that may have experienced the greatest burden of VBDs. The relative risk of CHIK and DENF for each Colombian municipality belonging to a univariate and multivariate cluster is reported to facilitate targeted interventions. Finally, we visualize the results in a three-dimensional environment to examine the size and duration of the clusters. Our approach is the first of its kind to examine multiple VBDs in Colombia simultaneously, while the 3D visualizations are a novel way of illustrating the dynamics of space-time clusters of disease.