A large-scale model of wolf distribution in Italy for conservation planning
A large-scale model of wolf distribution in Italy for conservation planning
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1523-1739.1999.97269.x
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发表时间：
1999-02-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Boitani, L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Corsi, F;Duprè, E;Boitani, L
目前生活在意大利半岛亚平宁山脉的400-500只狼正在慢慢地使阿尔卑斯山化，预计将向北移动。一项针对意大利狼种群的全国性管理计划正在编制中，并建议建立一个带有连接走廊的分区系统。我们开发了一个大规模的概率模型狼分布的规划过程中的贡献。在12个经过充分研究的狼领地和100个过去25年没有该物种的地区，分析了与狼需求和人类存在相关的13个环境变量。这两个地区被用作判别分析中的训练集，以评估整个国家的潜在狼的存在。我们使用马氏距离统计作为环境质量的指数，计算出狼领地的环境条件。基于马氏距离统计，我们构建了一个实际的和潜在的空间分布的狼的所有半岛意大利。刀切法用于评估距离模型的稳定性，并在我们的模型中显示出良好的置信度（变异系数小于或等于13%）。在过去的25年里，人们在287个地点发现了由于人类活动（毒药、猎枪车祸）而死亡的狼，对狼的环境质量指数与狼领地质心的距离进行了测试。一个有用的贡献，保护规划的结果比较的频率分布的马哈拉诺比斯距离的死亡狼的位置的百分比？在每一个距离类的研究领域。这表明狼的伤亡人数将大大减少与保护只有一小部分的研究领域，并表明我们的方法用于评估其他保护方案，如核心区和走廊识别的有用性。
The 400-500 wolves currently living in the Apennine range of peninsular Italy are slowly recolonizing the Alps and are expected to move northward. A nationwide management plan for the Italian wolf population is being prepared, and a zoning system with connecting corridors has been suggested. We developed a large-scale probabilistic model of wolf distribution as a contribution to the planning process. Thirteen environmental variables related to wolf needs and human Presence were analyzed in 12 well-studied wolf territories and in 100 areas where the species has been absent for the Past 25 years. These two areas were used as a training set in a discriminant analysis to evaluate Potential wolf presence throughout the entire country. We used the Mahalanobis distance statistic ns an index of environmental quality, calculated as the distance from the arrange environmental conditions of the wolf territories. Based on the Mahalanobis distance statistics, we constructed an actual and potential spatial distribution of the wolf for all of peninsula Italy. The jackknife procedure trans used to assess the stability of the distance model and showed good confidence in our model (coefficient of variation less than or equal to 13%). Distance from the wolf territories' centroid ns an index of environmental quality for the wolf was tested using 287 locations where wolves have been found dead in the past 25 years as a consequence of human action (poison, shotgun car accidents). A useful contribution to conservation Planning resulted from comparing the frequency distribution of the Mahalanobis distance of the dead wolf locations with the percentage? of study area within each distance class. This showed how the number of wolf casualties would greatly decrease with Protection of only a minor part of the study area and indicated the usefulness of our approach for evaluation of other conservation options, such as core areas and corridor identification.