THE PREDICTABILITY OF SOCIAL EVENTS
THE PREDICTABILITY OF SOCIAL EVENTS
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DOI：
10.1086/257604
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发表时间：
1954-12-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Modigliani, Franco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grunberg, Emile;Modigliani, Franco
对未来事件的预测似乎给社会科学带来了物理科学所不知道的困难：有人声称，在对已发表的对未来事件的预测作出反应时，个人会影响事件的进程，从而使预测成为错误。3目的1我们受益于几位同事的批评和建议，他们善意地阅读了本文的各种草稿。我们特别要感谢赫伯特西蒙教授，他耐心地阅读了本论文的所有草稿，并对其中的许多草稿进行了认真的批评。他的贡献，我们的论点是太多的上市，特别是，他建议使用布劳威尔的不动点定理。然而，我们要对这一论点现在所呈现的最后形式，特别是对任何作为或不作为的错误承担全部责任。
to the expectations of future events seems to create difficulties for the social sciences unknown to the physical sciences: it has been claimed that, in reacting to the published prediction of a future event, individuals influence the course of events and thereby falsify the prediction. 3 The purpose1 We benefited from the criticism and advice of several colleagues who kindly read various drafts of this paper. We are especially indebted to Professor Herbert Simon, who patiently read and painstakingly criticized all drafts of the present paperof which there were many. His contributions to our argument are too numerous to be listed; in particular, he suggested the use of Brouwer's Fixed Point Theorem. However, the responsibility for the final form in which this argument is now presented and, especially, for any errors of commission or omission is entirely ours.