Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?
Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?
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移民是否影响了西班牙总统选举结果？
DOI：
10.1007/s00148-013-0471-y
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Isabel M. Cutillas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ildefonso Méndez;Isabel M. Cutillas
1998至2008年间，西班牙的移民比例从不到3%跃升至13%以上。我们通过考虑关于国有化移民参与率和投票行为的替代假设，为移民流入对当地人选举结果的影响提供了界限。我们发现，拉美移民增加了当地人的参与率和对主要左翼政党(社会主义工人党)的支持率，而不是主要的保守党(人民党)。相反，与人民党相比，非洲移民只增加了当地人对反移民阵营的支持，而不影响他们的参与率。在所有情况下，估计的影响都是适度的。我们提供的提示性证据表明，经济因素不能解释移民种族群体兴趣影响的如此异质性。我们认为，西班牙原住民对移民的态度主要是由非经济因素推动的，比如原住民和移民在语言、宗教和种族方面的不同。
Between 1998 and 2008, the immigrant share in Spain jumped from less than 3 % to more than 13 %. We provide bounds on the effect of immigration inflows on natives’ election outcomes by considering alternative assumptions about nationalized immigrants’ participation rates and voting behavior. We find that Latin-American immigration increased natives’ participation rate and their support for the major leftist party (Socialist Workers’ Party) over the major conservative party (People’s Party (PP)). Conversely, African immigration only increased natives’ support for anti-immigration formations relative to the PP while leaving unaffected their participation rate. The estimated effects are of modest size in all cases. We provide suggestive evidence that economic factors cannot account for such a heterogeneity in the effects of interest by immigrants’ ethnic groups. We argue that Spanish natives’ attitudes towards immigrants are mainly driven by noneconomic factors like dissimilarities between natives and immigrants in language, religion, and race.