Estimation of peak discharges of historical floods
Estimation of peak discharges of historical floods
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-18-4029-2014
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发表时间：
2014-10
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
J. Herget;Thomas Roggenkamp;M. Krell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Herget;Thomas Roggenkamp;M. Krell
抽象的。毫无疑问，考虑到历史上的洪水事件，可以大大改善对未来洪水的危险评估，特别是考虑到最近的环境变化。虽然地方、区域甚至欧洲范围的洪水频率清单已经制定和公布，但对排放量所表示的洪水量级的估计仍然具有挑战性。由于人类活动对河道和洪泛区的重大影响，需要此类数据，尽管历史洪水水位与近期洪水或近期排放量无关。根据单个地方重点研究的经验，我们提出了一种方法来估计流量的前一次洪水的基础上移交的洪水位和地形数据的一般轮廓。一维稳定流模型基于平均流速的经验曼宁方程。背景和潜在的信息来源，可接受的简化和数据转换的模型方程的每个元素的解释和讨论。关于±10%的准确度的初步经验记录，并给出了验证个人估计的潜在方法。对该方法的审查结束时，简要讨论了其优点和局限性，包括对替代方法的一般性说明。
Abstract. There is no doubt that the hazard assessment of future floods, especially under consideration of recent environmental change, can be significantly improved by the consideration of historic flood events. While flood frequency inventories on local, regional and even European scale have already been developed and published, the estimation of their magnitudes indicated by discharges is still challenging. Such data are required due to significant human impacts on river channels and floodplains, though historic flood levels cannot be related to recent ones or recent discharges. Based on experiences from single local key studies, we present the general outline of an approach to estimate the discharge of the previous flood based on handed-down flood level and topographic data. The model for one-dimensional steady flow is based on the empirical Manning equation for the mean flow velocity. Background and potential sources of information, acceptable simplifications and data transformation for each element of the model equation are explained and discussed. Preliminary experiences regarding the accuracy of ±10% are documented, and potential approaches for the validation of individual estimations are given. A brief discussion of benefits and limitations, including a generalized statement on alternative approaches, concludes the review of the approach.