Spatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan.
Spatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan.
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DOI：
10.1111/jbi.12534
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发表时间：
2015-07
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Begon M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wilschut LI;Laudisoit A;Hughes NK;Addink EA;de Jong SM;Heesterbeek HA;Reijniers J;Eagle S;Dubyanskiy VM;Begon M
人口的空间结构可以强烈影响传染病的动态，但很少是量化的基本结构。一个恰当的例子是鼠疫，这是一种由鼠疫耶尔森氏菌引起的传染性人畜共患疾病。近年来，中亚沙漠鼠疫疫源地内的鼠疫动力学已被广泛建模，但其主要储存宿主大沙鼠（Rhombomys opimus）的分布始终具有很强的均匀性假设。然而，虽然由于社会或生态过程，该物种的洞穴聚类可能对模型结果产生潜在的重大影响，但目前对居住洞穴的空间分布一无所知。在这里，我们通过描述哈萨克斯坦大沙鼠洞穴空间格局的关键方面来解决这一知识差距。哈萨克斯坦.洞穴分为占用或空在98个正方形的四个不同的大小：200米（边长），250米，500米和590-1020米。我们使用Ripley's K统计量来确定是否以及在什么尺度上存在被占用洞穴的聚类，并使用半变异函数来量化250 m至9 km尺度上被占用洞穴的空间模式。被占用洞穴的显着空间聚集分别发生在500 m和590-1020 m的正方形的25%和75%中，但在较小的正方形中则没有。在聚集的广场，聚集标准达到峰值约250米。半变异函数表明，洞穴密度是自相关的距离为7公里，占领密度高达2.5公里。这些结果表明，有统计上显着的空间聚集的洞穴和以前的鼠疫模型的均匀性假设应重新考虑，以评估其对鼠疫传播的意义。这一领域的证据将允许更现实的方法，疾病生态模型，这两个系统和其他结构化的主机人口。
The spatial structure of a population can strongly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases, yet rarely is the underlying structure quantified. A case in point is plague, an infectious zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Plague dynamics within the Central Asian desert plague focus have been extensively modelled in recent years, but always with strong uniformity assumptions about the distribution of its primary reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). Yet, while clustering of this species’ burrows due to social or ecological processes could have potentially significant effects on model outcomes, there is currently nothing known about the spatial distribution of inhabited burrows. Here, we address this knowledge gap by describing key aspects of the spatial patterns of great gerbil burrows in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan. Burrows were classified as either occupied or empty in 98 squares of four different sizes: 200 m (side length), 250 m, 500 m and 590–1020 m. We used Ripley's K statistic to determine whether and at what scale there was clustering of occupied burrows, and semi‐variograms to quantify spatial patterns in occupied burrows at scales of 250 m to 9 km. Significant spatial clustering of occupied burrows occurred in 25% and 75% of squares of 500 m and 590–1020 m, respectively, but not in smaller squares. In clustered squares, the clustering criterion peaked around 250 m. Semi‐variograms showed that burrow density was auto‐correlated up to a distance of 7 km and occupied density up to 2.5 km. These results demonstrate that there is statistically significant spatial clustering of occupied burrows and that the uniformity assumptions of previous plague models should be reconsidered to assess its significance for plague transmission. This field evidence will allow for more realistic approaches to disease ecology models for both this system and for other structured host populations.