Rising China, pivotal middle power South Korea, and alliance transition theory
Rising China, pivotal middle power South Korea, and alliance transition theory
复制标题
崛起的中国、关键的中等强国韩国和联盟转型理论
DOI：
10.1177/2233865915595531
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
0.7
通讯作者：
Woosang Kim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Woosang Kim
联盟转移理论是将关键的中等大国的角色纳入奥根斯基的权力转移理论框架而发展起来的。该理论认为，当主导国的联盟阵营与崛起的不满挑战者阵营之间的联盟力量势均力敌时，很可能导致重大战争；此外，关键的中等大国不仅能够帮助巩固主导国家对潜在挑战者的权力优势，而且还能够发挥调解作用，说服崛起的潜在挑战者对现状更加满意。将联盟过渡的论点应用到东亚地区，该理论认为，像韩国这样的关键中等大国可以成为美国维持其对潜在挑战者中华人民共和国的优势力量的关键补充。作为美国重要的地区盟友，韩国与其他志同道合的中等大国一起，也可以通过与中国进行实质性接触，发挥建设性作用，说服中国成为现状体系中负责任的一员。
The alliance transition theory is developed by incorporating the pivotal middle power’s role into Organski’s power transition theoretical framework. The theory posits that the situation of parity of alliance power between the dominant power’s alliance camp and the rising dissatisfied challenger’s camp is likely to lead to major war; and, further, that the pivotal middle power is able not only to help reinforce the dominant state’s power preponderance over its potential challenger but also to play a mediating role of persuading the rising potential challenger to be more satisfied with the status quo. Applying the alliance transition arguments to the East Asian region, the theory suggests that a pivotal middle power such as South Korea can be a crucial addition to the United States’ capabilities to maintain its preponderance of power over the potential challenger, the People’s Republic of China. Together with other like-minded middle powers, the Republic of Korea, as a key regional ally of the United States, can also play the constructive role of persuading China to be a responsible member of the status quo system, by engaging substantially with China.