Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures
Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gl064888
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发表时间：
2015-08-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Way, Robert G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cowtan, Kevin;Hausfather, Zeke;Way, Robert G.
气候模型模拟与观测到的地表温度变化之间的一致性程度是一个科学和政策问题。虽然地球系统由于人为和其他辐射强迫而继续积累能量，但对最近地表温度演变的估计降至气候模型预测的较低端。来自气候模型模拟的全球平均温度通常是使用地面气温计算的，而相应的观测是基于大气和海洋表面温度的混合。这项工作量化了模式观测比较中因海洋表面温度和海洋表面气温之间的升温速率不同而产生的系统性偏差。在处理海冰边界发生变化的地区的温度时，还会产生进一步的偏差。将HadCRUT4记录的方法应用于气候模式温度场，解释了1975-2014年期间模式与观测之间趋势差异的38%。
The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975-2014.