Continuous, large‐scale simulation model for flood risk assessments: proof‐of‐concept
Continuous, large‐scale simulation model for flood risk assessments: proof‐of‐concept
复制标题
洪水风险评估的连续大规模模拟模型：概念验证
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Merz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Falter;N. Dung;S. Vorogushyn;K. Schröter;Y. Hundecha;H. Kreibich;H. Apel;F. Theisselmann;B. Merz
本文介绍了区域洪水模型(RFM)，这是一个为大尺度流域开发的基于过程的模型梯级。该研究的目的是论证基于连续模拟方法的洪水风险评估在大流域尺度上是可行的，包括降雨径流、一维河网、二维腹地淹没和损失估计模型。RFM适用于易北河流域的德国部分，包括约2700公里的河流。在这项概念验证研究中，模拟是在1990-2003年期间连续进行的。方程的简化和并行化使连续的二维水动力淹没模拟能够在相对较高的分辨率(100 m)上以合理的运行时间进行。由于模型链上的每个模块都引入了不确定性，因此在可能的情况下，使用观测数据来评估结果。结果表明，不确定度是很大的，特别是对于水动力模拟。这基本上是由于数据质量较低以及在模拟中忽略决堤影响造成的。有关漫滩断面和堤防的可靠信息预计将显著改善结果。我们的结论是，在长期气候数据的驱动下，在连续模拟框架内对流域过程、淹没和破坏进行大规模模拟是可行的。它有可能提供空间上一致的、大规模的洪水风险图景。
In this paper we present the Regional Flood Model (RFM), a process‐based model cascade developed for large‐scale basins. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall–runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models, are feasible at the scale of large catchments. RFM is applied to the German part of the Elbe catchment including around 2700 river‐km. For this proof‐of‐concept study, simulations are performed continuously over the period of 1990–2003. Simplification of equations and parallelisation enable the continuous 2D hydrodynamic inundation simulation with reasonable run‐times on a relatively high resolution of 100 m. As uncertainties are introduced with each module along the model chain, results are evaluated, where possible, with observed data. Results indicate that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This is basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breach effects in the simulations. Reliable information on overbank cross‐sections and dikes is expected to considerably improve the results. We conclude that the large‐scale simulation of catchment processes, inundation and damage, driven by long‐term climate data, is viable within a continuous simulation framework. It has the potential to provide a spatially consistent, large‐scale picture of flood risk.
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
F. Pappenberger;E. Dutra;F. Wetterhall;H. Cloke
通讯作者：
F. Pappenberger;E. Dutra;F. Wetterhall;H. Cloke