Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate
Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate
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DOI：
10.1038/s41612-023-00326-1
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发表时间：
2023-01
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Junyi Liang;J. Catto;M. Hawcroft;M. Tan;K. Hodges;J. Haywood
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Junyi Liang;J. Catto;M. Hawcroft;M. Tan;K. Hodges;J. Haywood
婆罗洲涡旋（BVs）是一种天气系统，在东南亚造成毁灭性的极端水文气候和重大的生命财产损失。目前大多数气候模式的典型分辨率不足以解决这些高影响的天气尺度天气系统。在这里，一系列高分辨率模型预测，在东北季风流减弱和北婆罗洲相关寒潮的推动下，未来的bv可能会变得不那么频繁和更加稳定。然而，预估bv的降水强度和总量都将大幅增加。这种变化是由更潮湿和对流不稳定的对流层低层驱动的。结果表明，南海南部海域BVs对总降水和极端降水积累的贡献将显著增加，个别BVs对邻近沿海地区的威胁更大。
Borneo Vortices (BVs) are weather systems that are responsible for devastating hydro-climatic extremes and significant losses of life and property in Southeast Asia. The typical resolution of most current climate models is insufficient to resolve these high-impact, synoptic-scale weather systems. Here, an ensemble of high-resolution models projects that future BVs may become less frequent and more stationary, driven by the weakening of the Northeast monsoon flow and associated cold surges across North Borneo. However, substantial increases in both the intensity and the total amount of precipitation from BVs are projected. Such changes are driven by the more humid and convectively unstable lower troposphere. As a result, the contribution of BVs to the accumulation of both total precipitation and extreme precipitation is projected to increase considerably in the vicinity of the southern South China Sea, making individual BVs more threatening to the adjacent coastal regions.