Thunderstorm Strike Probability Nowcasting
Thunderstorm Strike Probability Nowcasting
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DOI：
10.1175/2009jtecha1279.1
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Scurrah, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dance, Sandy;Ebert, Elizabeth;Scurrah, David
为了协助雷暴警报，已经开发了自动临近预报系统，该系统检测雷达图像中的雷暴单元，并及时将其向前传播，以生成预测的威胁区域。然而，目前的方法，未能量化的概率性质的错误结构的预测。本文介绍了雷暴环境袭击概率算法（THESPA），预报员可以使用它来提供概率雷暴临近预报，用于风险评估和应急决策。该方法通过将雷暴临近预报转换为罢工概率，或者通过指定速度和方向误差的二元高斯分布，将给定位置在给定时段内受到雷暴影响的概率，来解释预测误差。本文介绍了THESPA方法的发展和分析，并使用实验数据验证性能。从雷暴识别，跟踪，分析和临近预报（TITAN）的临近预报的跟踪误差的统计分析结果，澳大利亚悉尼，被用来指定的分布，然后应用到从世界天气研究计划（WWRP）北京2008年预报示范项目收集的数据。结果是令人鼓舞的，并显示Brier技能得分在0.36和0.44之间的确定性平流威胁区预测。
To assist in thunderstorm warning, automated nowcasting systems have been developed that detect thunderstorm cells in radar images and propagate them forward in time to generate forecasted threat areas. Current methods, however, fail to quantify the probabilistic nature of the error structure of such forecasts. This paper introduces the Thunderstorm Environment Strike Probability Algorithm (THESPA), which forecasters can use to provide probabilistic thunderstorm nowcasts for risk assessment and emergency decision making. This method accounts for the prediction error by transforming thunderstorm nowcasts into a strike probability, or the probability that a given location will be impacted by a thunderstorm in a given period, by specifying a bivariate Gaussian distribution of speed and direction errors. This paper presents the development and analysis of the THESPA method and verifies performance using experimental data. Results from a statistical analysis of Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting (TITAN) tracking errors of nowcasts made near Sydney, Australia, were used to specify the distribution, which was then applied to data collected from the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project. The results are encouraging and show Brier skill scores between 0.36 and 0.44 with respect to a deterministic advected threat area forecast.