Historic floods in the city of Prague – a reconstruction of peak discharges for 1481–1825 based on documentary sources
Historic floods in the city of Prague – a reconstruction of peak discharges for 1481–1825 based on documentary sources
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布拉格市的历史性洪水——根据文献资料重建 1481 年至 1825 年的洪峰流量
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Niessen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Elleder;J. Herget;Thomas Roggenkamp;A. Niessen
本文旨在根据前工具化时期和早期工具化时期（1481-1825）的文献资料，重建历史名城布拉格城市化地区历史洪水的峰值流量。大约 20-30 个最高水位由洪水标记、未改变地点的描述或相关记录或早期仪器测量来表示。此次重建的挑战是识别和考虑影响横截面面积和水力粗糙度的人为洪泛区改造。为了克服这个问题，开发了一种简单的方法来估计历史洪水的峰值流量，并将其应用于伏尔塔瓦河。该方法包括重建河道和淹没漫滩水力参数的程序，以及验证估计峰值流量可靠性的方法。由于与冰塞洪水相关的不同水力特征，所有冬季洪水事件都被排除在外，以避免潜在的包含在内。我们提出了 18 个重建的放电最大值。通过与 2002 年最近测量的洪水进行比较，对该技术的验证表明结果具有足够的准确性。比较还表明，2002 年的洪水事件明显大于 1481 年至 1825 年所有计算的夏季洪水。
The paper aims to reconstruct peak discharges of historic floods in an urbanized area of the historic city of Prague based on documentary sources from pre-instrumental and the early instrumental period (1481–1825). Approximately 20–30 maximum water levels are denoted by flood-marks, accounts describing or related at unchanged sites, or by early instrumental measurements. The challenge in this reconstruction is the identification and consideration of man-made floodplain modifications influencing the cross-section area and the hydraulic roughness. In order to overcome this problem, a simple approach to estimate peak discharges of historic floods has been developed and applied to the River Vltava. This approach includes a procedure for reconstructing the hydraulic parameters of the river channel and inundated floodplain, coupled with an approach for the verification of estimated peak discharge reliability. As a result of the different hydraulic characteristics associated with ice jam floods all winter-flood events are excluded to avoid their potential inclusion. We present 18 reconstructed discharge maxima. The validation of the technique by comparison with the recent gauged flood of 2002 reveals results of adequate accuracy. The comparison also shows that the flood event of 2002 was conspicuously greater than all calculated summer floods in 1481–1825.