Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate
Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate
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DOI：
10.1038/18648
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发表时间：
1999-03-25
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Folland, CK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rodwell, MJ;Rowell, DP;Folland, CK
北大西洋的天气，特别是在冬季，通常以“冰岛低压”和“亚速尔群岛高压”之间的强烈东向气流为特征，并以向西欧移动的天气系统的“风暴轨道”为特征。北大西洋振荡--其指数可定义为亚速尔群岛和冰岛之间海平面大气压力的差异--是全球大气变化的一种重要模式（1，2），由于大气内部的动力过程，它与北大西洋风暴路径的位置和强度密切相关（3，4）。在这里，我们使用大气环流模式来研究海洋在强迫北大西洋和欧洲气候中的作用。我们的模拟表明，在过去的半个世纪的冬季北大西洋涛动的多年到几十年的变化可以重建从北大西洋海表温度的知识。我们认为，海表温度特征是“沟通”到大气中的蒸发，降水和大气加热过程，导致欧洲的温度，降水和风暴的变化。由于最近有人提出北大西洋海面温度模式可能存在显著的多年可预测性（5），我们的结果对于提前数年预测欧洲冬季气候是令人鼓舞的。
The weather over the North Atlantic Ocean, particularly in winter, is often characterized by strong eastward air-flow between the 'Icelandic low' and the 'Azores high,' and by a 'stormtrack' of weather systems which move towards western Europe. The North Atlantic Oscillation-an index of which can be defined as the difference in atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Azores and Iceland-is an important mode of variability in the global atmosphere(1,2) and is intimately related to the position and strength of the North Atlantic stormtrack owing to dynamic processes internal to the atmosphere(3,4). Here we use a general circulation model of the atmosphere to investigate the ocean's role in forcing North Atlantic and European climate. Our simulations indicate that much of the multiannual to multidecadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation over the past half century may be reconstructed from a knowledge of North Atlantic sea surface temperature. We argue that sea surface temperature characteristics are 'communicated' to the atmosphere through evaporation, precipitation and atmospheric-heating processes, leading to changes in temperature, precipitation and storminess over Europe. As it has recently been proposed that there may be significant multiannual predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns(5), our results are encouraging for the prediction of European winter climate up to several years in advance.