Climate change impact on yields and water use of wheat and maize in the North China Plain under future climate change scenarios
Climate change impact on yields and water use of wheat and maize in the North China Plain under future climate change scenarios
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106238
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发表时间：
2020-08
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Deng Xiao;D. Liu;Bin Wang;P. Feng;Huizi Bai;Jianzhao Tang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Deng Xiao;D. Liu;Bin Wang;P. Feng;Huizi Bai;Jianzhao Tang
气候变化已经并将继续对华北平原的作物产量和用水产生重大影响。目前，这片平原正面临地下水枯竭和粮食生产需求的困境。迫切需要确定未来气候变化对作物产量和用水量的影响，然后制定该地区有效的适应战略。在本研究中，我们使用来自 33 个全球气候模型 (GCM) 的统计降尺度每日气候数据以及分布在 NCP 的 61 个站点的两个代表性浓度路径（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5），并驱动经过充分验证的 APSIM 模型来模拟 2031-2060 年（2040 年代）和 2071-2100 年（2080 年代）这两个未来时期的作物产量和用水量。所有 33 个 GCM 的数据均显示年平均气温上升，几乎所有 GCM 也显示整个 NCP 的年平均太阳辐射和年总降水量增加。未来的气候变暖导致了冬小麦和夏玉米（NCP 的两种典型作物）物候的进步。然而，在NCP的未来气候情景下，冬小麦的生殖生长期（RGP）长度延长，而夏玉米的生殖生长期缩短。我们的模拟结果表明，未来气候变化对整个NCP地区的玉米产量产生负面影响，但对小麦产量产生积极影响。主要是由于整个生育期的缩短，未来气候情景下作物耗水量大幅减少。所需灌溉量也减少，主要是由于降水量增加和蒸散量减少。尽管未来的气候变化可能会缓解华北地区大部分地区的地下水透采，但华北地区北部的一些地区未来仍会出现地下水超采的情况。因此，我们建议在超抽水地区改变种植制度，减少耗水作物（如冬小麦）的种植面积，以平衡地下水利用和作物产量。
Climate change has already and will continue to exert a vital impact on crop yield and water use in the North China Plain (NCP). Currently, this plain is facing a dilemma between groundwater depletion and grain production demand. It is urgent to identify the impact of future climate change on crop yield and water consumption and then develop efficient adaptation strategies in the region. In this study, we used statistically downscaled daily climate data from 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 61 stations distributed across the NCP and drove the well-validated APSIM model to simulate crop yield and water use for two future periods of 2031–2060 (2040s) and 2071–2100 (2080s). Data from all 33 GCMs show an increase in annual mean temperature and almost all the GCMs also show increases in annual mean solar radiation and annual total precipitation across the NCP. Future climate warming led to an advance in phenology for both winter wheat and summer maize, two typical crops in the NCP. However, the length of the reproductive growth period (RGP) of winter wheat was prolonged while that of summer maize was shortened under future climate scenarios across the NCP. Our simulated results show that future climate change had negative impacts on maize yield but positive impacts on wheat yield across the NCP. Mainly due to the shortening of the whole growth period, crop water consumption was largely decreased under future climate scenarios. The amount of irrigation required was also reduced mainly due to increased precipitation and decreased ET. Although future climate change would likely mitigate groundwater overdraft in most part of NCP, some areas in the northern NCP still had groundwater over-pumping in the future. Therefore, we suggest that it might be a good choice to change cropping system for reducing planting area of water-consuming crop (e.g. winter wheat) in those over-pumping areas to balance groundwater use and crop yield.