The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory
The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory
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DOI：
10.1111/2041-210x.13955
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发表时间：
2022-08
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Abigail S. L. Lewis;C. Rollinson;A. Allyn;Jaime Ashander;S. Brodie;Cole B. Brookson;Elyssa L. Collins-Elyssa-L.-Coll
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Abigail S. L. Lewis;C. Rollinson;A. Allyn;Jaime Ashander;S. Brodie;Cole B. Brookson;Elyssa L. Collins-Elyssa-L.-Coll
生态预测为预测生命系统的短期和长期变化提供了一套强大的方法。现在已广泛制作预报，使人们能够对许多应用生态问题进行积极管理。然而，尽管许多人呼吁增加对生态学预测的重视，但预测加速生态学理论发展的潜力仍然没有得到充分认识。在这里，我们提供了一个概念框架，描述如何生态预测可以激励和推进生态理论。我们强调，通过加强预测发展、比较和综合，这一领域未来取得进展的机会很多。我们的框架描述了预测方法如何为现有的生态理论提供新的启发，同时也允许研究人员解决新的问题。通过对假设进行严格和反复的测试，预测可以帮助完善理论，并了解它们在整个系统中的普遍性。与此同时，综合预测允许发展新的理论，生态变量的相对可预测性跨越预测范围和尺度。我们设想未来的预测是集成的基础生态学中使用的工具集的一部分。通过概述预测方法与生态理论的相关性，我们的目标是减少进入的障碍，并扩大使用预测的基本生态洞察力的研究人员的社区。
Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.