The Construct-Behavior Gap in Behavioral Decision Research: A Challenge Beyond Replicability
The Construct-Behavior Gap in Behavioral Decision Research: A Challenge Beyond Replicability
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DOI：
10.1037/rev0000067
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Robinson, Maria M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Regenwetter, Michel;Robinson, Maria M.
行为决策研究将偏好等理论结构与观察到的选择等行为进行比较。从结构到行为的三个相当常见的联系是：（1）在参与者和决策问题中，计算与预测的成对偏好模式一致的选择数量;（2）将大多数人在每个决策问题中的选择与预测的偏好模式进行比较;或（3）列举两个实验条件产生的选择频率单侧显著性差异与理论“一致”的决策问题。虽然简单，但这些理论联系是抽象的。他们受到众所周知的推理谬误的影响，最著名的是笼统概括谬误和合成谬误。再多的复制也无法消除这些谬误。相反，在研究中反复重申逻辑上不一致的理论推理会混淆科学。作为一个恰当的例子，我们考虑简单彩票中的成对选择、小概率的加权或加权不足的假设以及描述-经验差距。我们讨论了如何避免推理谬误在弥合假设结构之间的概念差距，例如，“超重”，以观察成对选择数据。虽然重复是无价的，但成功地重复难以解释的结果却不是。行为决策研究通过阐明假设结构如何转化为可观察行为的精确和形式上明确的理论，获得了理论和经验上的清晰。
Behavioral decision research compares theoretical constructs like preferences to behavior such as observed choices. Three fairly common links from constructs to behavior are (1) to tally, across participants and decision problems, the number of choices consistent with one predicted pattern of pairwise preferences; (2) to compare what most people choose in each decision problem against a predicted preference pattern; or (3) to enumerate the decision problems in which two experimental conditions generate a 1-sided significant difference in choice frequency 'consistent' with the theory. Although simple, these theoretical links are heuristics. They are subject to well-known reasoning fallacies, most notably the fallacy of sweeping generalization and the fallacy of composition. No amount of replication can alleviate these fallacies. On the contrary, reiterating logically inconsistent theoretical reasoning over and again across studies obfuscates science. As a case in point, we consider pairwise choices among simple lotteries and the hypotheses of overweighting or underweighting of small probabilities, as well as the description-experience gap. We discuss ways to avoid reasoning fallacies in bridging the conceptual gap between hypothetical constructs, such as, for example, "overweighting" to observable pairwise choice data. Although replication is invaluable, successful replication of hard-to-interpret results is not. Behavioral decision research stands to gain much theoretical and empirical clarity by spelling out precise and formally explicit theories of how hypothetical constructs translate into observable behavior.