Changes in winter cold surges over Southeast China: 1961 to 2012
Changes in winter cold surges over Southeast China: 1961 to 2012
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DOI：
10.1007/s13143-014-0057-y
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发表时间：
2015-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
T. Ou;Deliang Chen;Jee-Hoon Jeong;H. Linderholm;Tianjun Zhou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Ou;Deliang Chen;Jee-Hoon Jeong;H. Linderholm;Tianjun Zhou
利用仪器观测资料、再分析资料和模式模拟资料，分析了1961-2012年中国东南部冬季寒潮发生的总体变化。根据客观定义的标准，根据地面气压系统（以西伯利亚高压（SH）为重点）的日演变模式，将冷涌的动力来源分为3种类型：A型与乌拉尔山高压异常有关的准稳定SH的放大，B型与快速行进的上层波有关的发展SH，C型为高压型，起源于北极。对冷涌发生的长期变化的分析表明，三类冷涌发生的年代际变化不同。1961-2012年，A类（37.8%）事件减少，占冬季冷涌总量的大部分（52.5%）的B类事件略有增加。与A、B型相比，C型对冷涌总发生率的贡献较小（8.8%），但近10年来C型冷涌的发生率有所增加，这与北极涛动（AO）的负位相变化趋势有关。总体而言，我们发现，自20世纪80年代初以来，在中国东南部的寒潮发生略有增加，尽管减弱的SH强度和温暖的平均温度与前几十年相比。耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第五阶段的气候模式预测表明，在气候变暖的情况下，21世纪后期也有类似的趋势。
The present study investigates the overall changes in occurrences of winter cold surges over Southeast China for the period 1961–2012, using instrumental observations, reanalysis and model simulation datasets. Based on objectively defined criteria, cold surges were classified into 3 types according to their dynamical origin as inferred from daily evolution patterns of surface pressure systems with a focus on the Siberian High (SH): type A with an amplification of a quasi-stationary SH associated with high-pressure anomalies over the Ural mountains, type B with a developing SH associated with fast traveling upper-level waves, and type C with a high-pressure originated in the Arctic. Examination of the long-term change in cold surge occurrences shows different interdecadal variations among the 3 types. During 1961–2012, type A events (37.8%) decreased, while type B events, accounting for the majority (52.5%) of total winter cold surges, increased slightly. The contribution by type C to the total occurrence of the cold surges was small (8.8%) compared to that of A and B, but it became more frequent in the latest decade, related to the tendency of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) being more in its negative phase. Overall, we found slightly increased occurrences of cold surges over Southeast China since the early 1980s, despite the weakened SH intensity and warmer mean temperature compared to previous decades. The climate model projections of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests similar trend in the late 21st century under warmer climate.