Design for Lifecycle Cost Using Time-Dependent Reliability
Design for Lifecycle Cost Using Time-Dependent Reliability
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DOI：
10.1115/detc2009-86587
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Amandeep Singh;Z. Mourelatos;Jing Li
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文献类型：
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作者：
Amandeep Singh;Z. Mourelatos;Jing Li
可靠性是持续提供可接受的产品性能的重要工程要求。随着时间的推移，产品可能会因时间相关的工作条件、部件退化等时间现象而失效。可靠性随时间的降低可能会由于潜在的保修成本、维修费用和市场份额的损失而增加生命周期成本。在进行全生命周期成本设计时，必须考虑产品质量和时间可靠性。质量是我们对产品出厂时是否符合规格的信心的衡量标准。可靠性取决于1)系统在指定时间间隔(无硬故障)内成功执行其预期功能的概率，以及2)系统响应在特定时间段(无软故障)内不超过客户或操作员不满意的阈值的概率。质量与时间无关，可靠性与时间相关。本文提出了一种设计方法，通过最小化产品生命周期内的成本来确定依赖时间的多响应系统的最优设计。多个响应的一致性以串联系统的方式处理。生命周期成本包括生产成本、检验成本和预期变动成本。所有成本取决于质量和/或可靠性。我们方法的关键是计算所谓的系统累积分布函数(与时间相关的故障概率)。为此，我们使用了一种等价的时不变的“复合”极限状态，它对单调或非单调的时间系统是准确的。示例重点介绍了累积分布函数的计算和生命周期成本的设计方法。版权所有*2009，ASME
Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. As time progresses, the product may fail due to time phenomena such as time-dependent operating conditions, component degradation, etc. The degradation of reliability with time may increase the lifecycle cost due to potential warranty costs, repairs and loss of market share. In design for lifecycle cost, we must account for product quality, and time-dependent reliability. Quality is a measure of our confidence that the product conforms to specifications as it leaves the factory. Reliability depends on 1) the probability that the system will perform its intended function successfully for a specified interval of time (no hard failure), and 2) on the probability that the system response will not exceed an objectionable by the customer or operator, threshold for a certain time period (no soft failure). Quality is time-independent, and reliability is time-dependent. This article presents a design methodology to determine the optimal design of time-dependent, multi-response systems, by minimizing the cost during the life of the product. The conformance of multiple responses is treated in a series-system fashion. The lifecycle cost includes a production, an inspection, and an expected variable cost. All costs depend on quality and/or reliability. The key to our approach is the calculation of the so-called system cumulative distribution function (time-dependent probability of failure). For that we use an equivalent time-invariant “composite” limit state which is accurate for monotonic or non-monotonic in time, systems. Examples highlight the calculation of the cumulative distribution function and the design methodology for lifecycle cost.Copyright © 2009 by ASME