An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large US cities and the possible impacts of a climate change
An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large US cities and the possible impacts of a climate change
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DOI：
10.2307/3433067
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发表时间：
1997-01-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Greene, JS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kalkstein, LS;Greene, JS
一种新的基于气团的天气程序用于评估目前存在的气候/死亡率关系，并估计预测的全球变暖可能如何改变这些值。分析了 44 个都会区人口超过 100 万的美国大城市。对于东部和中西部的大多数城市来说，夏季，当出现两种特殊的气团时，死亡率会急剧增加，其中海洋来源的非常温暖的气团在美国东部最为重要，一旦出现，大城市的每日死亡率就会增加多达 30 人。炎热、干燥的艾滋群在许多城市都很重要，虽然在东部很少见，但每天的死亡率会增加多达 50 人。南部和西南部的城市在夏季的天气/死亡率关系较小。冬季，气团引起的死亡率增加远低于夏季。尽管冬季的日常道德通常高于夏季，但造成大多数冬季死亡的原因并不会随温度变化太大。利用预测 2020 年和 2050 年气候变化的模型，即使人们适应了温暖的气候，夏季死亡率仍将急剧增加，冬季死亡率将略有下降。因此，如果气候如模型预测的那样变暖，与天气相关的死亡率预计将大幅净增加。
A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present ii very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States, which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry ait mass is important in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter morality is usually higher than summer, the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict.