Modeling the dynamics of the integrated earth system and the value of global ecosystem services using the GUMBO model
Modeling the dynamics of the integrated earth system and the value of global ecosystem services using the GUMBO model
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/s0921-8009(02)00098-8
复制
发表时间：
2002-06-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Grasso, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boumans, R;Costanza, R;Grasso, M
开发了一个全球统一的生物圈元模型(Gumbo)，以模拟综合地球系统，并评估生态系统服务的动态和价值。它是一个“元模型”，因为它代表了自然科学和社会科学中几个现有动态全球模型的综合和简化，复杂性处于中等水平。当前版本的模型包含234个状态变量、总共930个变量和1715个参数。Gumbo是第一个将人类技术、经济生产和福利以及动态地球系统内的生态系统商品和服务之间的动态反馈包括在内的全球模型。秋葵汤包括模拟通过全球系统的大气、岩石圈、水圈和生物圈的碳、水和营养通量的模块。社会和经济动态是在人类圈内模拟的。秋葵汤将这五个球体连接在11个生物群中，这些生物群共同覆盖了地球的整个表面。对每个生态圈的11种主要生态系统商品和服务的动态进行了模拟和评价。对有定量时间序列数据的14个关键变量进行1900年至2000年的历史校准，得出的平均R-2为0.922。模拟了一系列未来情景，这些情景代表了对未来技术变化、投资战略和其他因素的不同假设。根据生态系统服务对支持常规经济生产和更广泛定义的人类福祉的贡献，估计了每种情景下的生态系统服务的相对价值，并得出初步结论。使用这一方法估计，2000年全球生态系统服务的价值约为世界生产总值的4.5倍。该模型可以下载并在普通PC上运行，使用户能够自己探索系统的复杂动态以及各种政策假设和情景。(C)2002 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。
A global unified metamodel of the biosphere (GUMBO) was developed to simulate the integrated earth system and assess the dynamics and values of ecosystem services. It is a 'metamodel' in that it represents a synthesis and a simplification of several existing dynamic global models in both the natural and social sciences at an intermediate level of complexity. The current version of the model contains 234 state variables, 930 variables total, and 1715 parameters. GUMBO is the first global model to include the dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services within the dynamic earth system. GUMBO includes modules to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, and Biosphere of the global system. Social and economic dynamics are simulated within the Anthroposphere. GUMBO links these five spheres across eleven biomes, which together encompass the entire surface of the planet. The dynamics of eleven major ecosystem goods and services for each of the biomes are simulated and evaluated. Historical calibrations from 1900 to 2000 for 14 key variables for which quantitative time-series data was available produced an average R-2 of 0.922. A range of future scenarios representing different assumptions about future technological change, investment strategies and other factors have been simulated. The relative value of ecosystem services in terms of their contribution to supporting both conventional economic production and human well-being more broadly defined were estimated under each scenario, and preliminary conclusions drawn. The value of global ecosystem services was estimated to be about 4.5 times the value of Gross World Product (GWP) in the year 2000 using this approach. The model can be downloaded and run on the average PC to allow users to explore for themselves the complex dynamics of the system and the full range of policy assumptions and scenarios. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.