Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance
Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance
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DOI：
10.5089/9781484397015.001
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发表时间：
2019-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ananthakrishnan Prasad;Selim Elekdağ;P. Jeasakul;R. Lafarguette;Adrian Alter;Alan Feng;Changchun Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ananthakrishnan Prasad;Selim Elekdağ;P. Jeasakul;R. Lafarguette;Adrian Alter;Alan Feng;Changchun Wang
风险增长(GAR)框架将当前的宏观金融状况与未来增长的分配联系起来。它的主要优势是能够评估未来GDP增长的整个分布(与点预测相反)，量化增长方面的宏观金融风险，并监控经济活动风险随时间的演变。通过使用GAR分析，政策制定者可以量化风险情景的可能性，这将作为先发制人行动的基础。本文对如何进行GAR分析提供了实践指导，并借鉴了各国的案例研究。它还讨论了一个基于Excel的GAR工具，该工具是为支持IMF的双边监督努力而开发的。
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.