Modeling R0 for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local Infectious Zones
Modeling R0 for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local Infectious Zones
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph16060954
复制
发表时间：
2019-03-02
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Getz, Wayne M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Blackburn, Jason K.;Ganz, Holly H.;Getz, Wayne M.
疾病的传播方式会影响我们确定 R-0 的能力，R-0 是流行病爆发时传染性宿主引起的平均新病例数。由于传播方式多种多样，从直接传播的疾病到媒介传播的疾病再到环境传播的疾病，R-0 变得越来越难以计算。导致环境传播疾病的病原体通常存在于环境储存库中，这些储存库表现出复杂的局部感染区 (LIZ) 空间分布。准确的 R-0 需要了解宿主与 LIZ 的接触情况以及 LIZ 内病原体的持久性，并且对这些接触进行建模需要采用集成的地理空间和动力系统方法。在这里，我们回顾了景观水平变量如何驱动宿主和病原体种群以及环境储存库之间的相互作用，并综合制定疫情应对和疾病控制所需的定量框架。
How a disease is transmitted affects our ability to determine R-0, the average number of new cases caused by an infectious host at the onset of an epidemic. R-0 becomes progressively more difficult to compute as transmission varies from directly transmitted diseases to diseases that are vector-borne to environmentally transmitted diseases. Pathogens responsible for diseases with environmental transmission are typically maintained in environmental reservoirs that exhibit a complex spatial distribution of local infectious zones (LIZs). Understanding host encounters with LIZs and pathogen persistence within LIZs is required for an accurate R-0 and modeling these contacts requires an integrated geospatial and dynamical systems approach. Here we review how interactions between host and pathogen populations and environmental reservoirs are driven by landscape-level variables, and synthesize the quantitative framework needed to formulate outbreak response and disease control.