DICER: A tool for analyzing climate policies
DICER: A tool for analyzing climate policies
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DICER：分析气候政策的工具
DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.025
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
James Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Ortiz;A. Golub;Oleg Lugovoy;A. Markandya;James Wang
经济和地球气候的建模涉及大量的变量和参数，考虑到目前技术和气候科学的知识水平，其中一些变量和参数非常不确定。DICER模型（或DICE- regional）是最近建立的综合评估模型（IAM），它基于DICE模型族的结构，是作为分析气候政策不确定性的工具而开发的。本文旨在描述DICER的基本版本，未来解决气候政策分析中不确定性的发展将基于此。与其他IAMs相比，我们的研究结果得出了一些有趣的结论：(i)在一组合理的假设和参数下，DICER表明，最优的全球气候政策意味着短期内气候变化的成本更高，但所有地区的脱碳过程更快（也更昂贵），从而导致气候更快稳定；（二）峰值温度较低，出现时间较早；（iii）结果对气候敏感度等关键参数相当敏感，但对社会贴现率的敏感度低于预期。
Modeling the economy and the planet's climate involves a great number of variables and parameters, some of them very uncertain given the current stage of knowledge regarding technology and the science of climate. The DICER model (or DICE-Regional) is a recently constructed Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), based on the structure of the DICE family of models, which was developed as an instrument for the analysis of uncertainties in climate policy. This paper aims to describe the basic version of DICER on which future developments addressing uncertainty in climate policy analysis will be based. Our results suggest a few interesting conclusions when compared to other IAMs: (i) under a plausible set of assumptions and parameters DICER indicates that an optimal global climate policy would imply higher costs of climate change in the short run but a faster (and more expensive) decarbonization process in all regions, resulting in a faster stabilization of the climate; (ii) lower peak temperatures that occur earlier in time; (iii) considerable sensitivity of results to key parameters such as climate sensitivity, but lower than expected sensitivity to the social discount rate.