On the Limits of Estimating the Maximum Wind Speeds in Hurricanes
On the Limits of Estimating the Maximum Wind Speeds in Hurricanes
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-13-00337.1
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发表时间：
2014-08
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
D. Nolan;Jun A. Zhang;E. Uhlhorn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Nolan;Jun A. Zhang;E. Uhlhorn
摘要本研究使用观测系统模拟实验（OSSE）方法来测试即使是近乎理想的观测系统在捕获热带风暴或飓风内发生的峰值风速方面的局限性。该数据集由大西洋飓风的1公里分辨率模拟提供，每10秒保存一次表面风速。一个由密集的风速计组成的最佳观测系统提供了对1分钟峰值风速和平均峰值风速的完美测量。对由少量风速计组成的次优观测系统进行采样，并与最优观测系统提供的真实情况进行比较。结果表明，一个单一的，完美的风速计经历了直接击中的右侧眼壁将低估实际峰值强度的10%-20%。即使是异常大量的风速计（例如，3-5)共同经历风暴的直接袭击将低估峰值风速5%-10%。然而，Jus的峰值风...
AbstractThis study uses an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) approach to test the limitations of even nearly ideal observing systems to capture the peak wind speed occurring within a tropical storm or hurricane. The dataset is provided by a 1-km resolution simulation of an Atlantic hurricane with surface wind speeds saved every 10 s. An optimal observing system consisting of a dense field of anemometers provides perfect measurements of the peak 1-min wind speed as well as the average peak wind speed. Suboptimal observing systems consisting of a small number of anemometers are sampled and compared to the truth provided by the optimal observing system. Results show that a single, perfect anemometer experiencing a direct hit by the right side of the eyewall will underestimate the actual peak intensity by 10%–20%. Even an unusually large number of anemometers (e.g., 3–5) experiencing direct hits by the storm together will underestimate the peak wind speeds by 5%–10%. However, the peak winds of jus...